How to handicap a horserace - Jack Phillips

With the season of Keeneland fast approaching, a lot of people are getting their sundresses, suits, and of course their crazy hats ready, but what they should spend time on is learning how to bet based on something other than the colors of the silks or the names of the horses.
Step 1) deciding which races to bet on. Most people, myself included, bet just about every race when at keeneland, but this isnt always a great strategy. Typically, maiden races are very hard to predict because none of the horses have ever won a race, and are unpredictable. I don't discourage betting on these, but if you do bet, bet small.
Step 2) the posted odds. the odds may not be perfect, but usually are a pretty good indication of a horse's caliber. For example, a horse going off at 1/5 is probably going to win, but the reward is so low, it would be better to bet on a different horse to place, or try an exacta. Likewise, longshots usually aren't a good bet, I would stray away from horses that go off at over 20-1.
Step 3) record. Obviously the record of a horse is important, but the key here is to look at 4 factors (of decreasing importance) of the record. First, race quality. A horse may be winning every race it has been entered in, but if its best victory is a 20k claiming race and it is entered in a 500k graded stakes, its probably not a good bet. Second, distance of the races it has done well in. Some horses are great sprinters, but just because a horse has won five 6 furlong races doesnt mean it will do well in a 1 1/8 mile race. Third is the track type. There are three different kinds of track, turf, dirt, and polytrack. A horse that is great on the dirt may be a terrible turf horse and vice versa. Fourth is form. Some horses, like sports teams, have hot streaks, and if a horse is on a hot streak, it might be a good bet.